Sports betting and randomness aren’t one and the same thing exactly, but you can’t have the former without the latter.
But how does randomness work in sports betting? And is there a way you can use it to your advantage when gambling?
In this short article, we take a look.
In life, people like consistency and patterns.
It’s the same in sports betting. Random events are things gamblers try to avoid as much as possible because we know that the key to winning bets over the long term is finding a pattern.
And when something goes against the pattern, it doesn’t matter how much knowledge you have of the sport – you are going to lose because this is randomness at work.
So, to put it simply, a random event is something that goes against the pattern. It undoes even the most seasoned of professional gamblers, and there’s – seemingly – nothing that can be done about it.
Let’s use an example.
Let’s imagine a pro sports bettor has found a betting system that works consistently over the long term. He has found value bets that come in 19 times out of 20, thus always guaranteeing him a profit.
However, in the month of July, random outcomes occur. Instead of winning 19 times out of 20, the bet loses four times on the spin, thus putting a serious dent in his bankroll.
This can only be described as randomness at work. For the other 11 months of the year, his tried and tested system will work. The only reason it didn’t work in July is that July was clearly just a month where random things happened.
If we’re honest, it’s pretty much impossible to harness randomness so that it helps you generate more profit.
After all, the very nature of random things happening means that it would be way too difficult to correctly predict the outcomes of a random event. If you get it right, it’s just pure luck – nothing more.
Where randomness can help is by showing you whether or not your system actually works.
Let’s refer back to our earlier example of the bettor who’d devised a system that worked 11 months out of 12. To determine whether or not he truly was unlucky in July, he can cast his eye over his bets over the period of 12 months.
If it turns out that this bet really does come in 19 times out of 20, and that it only didn’t come in 19 times out of 20 in July and not any other month of the year, he can conclude that July was a month of randomness and that his system really works.
The problem for most bettors is that they don’t have a system that works. Instead, they operate on the assumption that random bets they place should work. For example, the huge favorites in the NBA should win tonight.But sports betting doesn’t work like that. Random things happen so often that most bets will lose. It’s only by devising a long-term system built on value bets that we can a) identify randomness and just ride it out until things get back on track and b) make profit consistently.
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